Predictors of mortality in the old-old in Israel: the Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study.

OBJECTIVES To examine whether well-known predictors of mortality change their predictive power over time, being reduced or even reversed in the old-old. DESIGN A multidimensional survey of the Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Aging Study conducted from 1989 to 1992 with follow-up of mortality after 6, 8, 10, and 12 years since 1989. SETTING Israel. PARTICIPANTS Participants (N=1,369) were drawn from a national sample of the Jewish Israeli population aged 75 to 94. MEASUREMENTS Data included sociodemographic factors and measures of health, physical condition, cognitive performance, and depression. RESULTS The results showed that age, sex, disability, self-rated health, and marital status predicted mortality and that their predictive power changed over 9 years. CONCLUSION In the old-old, predictors of mortality changed over time, and their predictive effect eventually diminished. The predictors found to be most significant (age, sex, disability, and self-rated health) support the common cause theory.